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TRUMP’S RE-ELECTION: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES FRAGMENTATION RISK
Economics has always been a crucial global issue. However, under Donald Trump’s strong influence, the global economic order risks becoming more fractured than ever.
Protectionism: A Boost or a Risk?
Many experts believe that with the “America First” doctrine, Trump’s administration could push the global economy into turmoil. Trade relationships, already fragile, may become even more disconnected as the U.S. strengthens economic protectionism, reduces multilateral cooperation, and imposes massive import tariffs.
According to a professor of international relations at the Center for Social Science Research and Expansion (IU-CSS), if Donald Trump returns to the White House in January 2025, the world will witness significant disruptions in economic order. The U.S. is expected to impose import tariffs ranging from 10% to 20% on most goods, and up to 100% on certain Chinese products. This could lead to retaliatory trade measures from major partners such as China, Mexico, and India, severely impacting global supply chains.
The U.S. Economy: Gains or Losses?
Domestically, protectionist policies may benefit certain industries, particularly those that have suffered from globalization. However, the downside is that prices for domestic goods could soar, reducing consumer purchasing power and slowing economic growth. U.S. companies that rely on international markets may also struggle due to trade restrictions.
Additionally, the U.S. withdrawal from multilateral trade agreements may create an unpredictable business environment. Many companies worry that rising trade barriers will lead to the loss of key markets, discouraging investment and production expansion.
Global Impact: Alienated Allies, Shifting Order
Trump’s foreign policies are also raising significant concerns. In his previous term, he withdrew from major international agreements such as the Paris Climate Accord and the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA). If he continues this approach, the U.S. may cut financial support for NATO, reduce engagement in international institutions, and put allied nations in difficult positions.
For developing countries, Trump’s policies could be particularly challenging. Regions such as Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia—whose economies depend heavily on trade with the U.S.—may struggle if access to the American market is restricted. This could force them to seek alternative partners like China, fostering new regional economic alliances to reduce dependence on the U.S.
Moreover, Trump’s skepticism toward international trade organizations like the WTO could weaken the global trade system. Developing nations, which rely on the WTO for trade dispute resolution, may find themselves at a disadvantage if the organization loses influence.
What Lies Ahead for the Global Economy?
If Donald Trump returns to the White House, the global economy could enter a period of heightened uncertainty. Rising protectionism, weakened traditional alliances, and escalating trade tensions could profoundly reshape the current economic order.
Can other nations adapt to an increasingly isolationist America, or will the global economy enter a prolonged period of fragmentation? The answer remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the world is heading into a turbulent new era.
TRUMP’S SECOND TERM: ECONOMIC IMPACTS AND GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS
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Former President Donald Trump’s economic policies have long emphasized the dominance of the U.S. dollar as a strategic tool for economic leverage. However, this approach may accelerate global de-dollarization efforts, particularly among emerging economies. Trump’s threats of tariffs against countries exploring alternative currencies are seen as an attempt to maintain the dollar’s supremacy. Yet, such measures may backfire, pushing more nations toward independent financial systems.
The Rise of De-Dollarization
Countries like China and Russia have already taken steps to trade in their own currencies, and a second Trump term could solidify this trend. A fragmented global economy may emerge, where major powers increasingly avoid dollar-based transactions. This shift could prompt key nations like China, Russia, and India to adjust their strategies.
• China may accelerate self-sufficiency efforts and strengthen regional alliances.
• Russia is likely to deepen economic ties with China and other BRICS nations to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar.
• India will face a strategic dilemma, balancing economic opportunities and challenges in its relationship with the U.S.
Trump’s protectionist stance and skepticism toward multilateral institutions could disrupt the global economic order, which has long been based on cooperation and shared governance. His retreat from multilateralism may weaken efforts to create a fair trade framework and exacerbate global inequality, particularly for developing economies in the Global South.
Economic Uncertainty and Global Divides
Trump’s policies may fuel economic instability, increase debt burdens, restrict access to U.S. markets, and force countries to rely on alternative alliances. By sidelining international institutions, his administration could drive the global economy toward greater fragmentation, where regional economic blocs take precedence over a unified system.
To withstand pressure from a protectionist U.S., multilateral organizations must adapt, protecting vulnerable economies while maintaining pathways for international cooperation. Fair trade and sustainable development will be key in navigating these challenges.
Trump’s Policy Direction and Leadership Strategy
During an interview with NBC News’ Meet the Press, Trump emphasized national unity, vowing to treat all Americans equally, regardless of political affiliation. He pledged to prioritize crime reduction and enhance national security, stating, “People should be able to walk down the street and buy a loaf of bread without getting shot. And that will happen.”
His inauguration speech is expected to focus on unity, safety, and national success. However, his policy decisions—especially in immigration and border security—suggest a hardline stance.
Key Appointments Signal a Hardline Approach
Trump’s second-term appointments have already sparked controversy. His most notable picks include:
• Stephen Miller, a key architect of Trump’s first-term immigration policies, appointed as Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy. Miller will oversee mass deportation plans and policies aimed at reducing legal immigration.
• Thomas Homan, former director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), will lead border security efforts. Homan has previously advocated for aggressive deportation measures.
• Kristi Noem, South Dakota Governor and a strong MAGA supporter, is a potential candidate for Homeland Security Secretary.
These selections indicate a strict immigration and border enforcement agenda, including the deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants—a promise Trump made during his campaign. Some estimates suggest such efforts could cost the U.S. up to $300 billion. However, Trump has dismissed cost concerns, stating, “Criminals and drug dealers must return to their own countries. They cannot stay here.”
Foreign Policy and U.S.-China Relations
Many conservative analysts view China as the greatest threat to U.S. global leadership. Trump’s new foreign policy team reflects a more confrontational approach toward Beijing:
• Michael Waltz, a retired U.S. Army colonel and Florida Congressman, will serve as National Security Advisor. Waltz has called for a Cold War-style stance against China and was among the first to advocate for a U.S. boycott of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics.
• Marco Rubio, a longtime China hawk, is a leading contender for Secretary of State. Rubio has faced Chinese sanctions for pushing legislation against Beijing’s policies in Hong Kong.
• Elise Stefanik, Trump’s pick for U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, has accused China of interfering in U.S. elections and has taken a hardline stance on Beijing’s growing influence at the UN.
With a Trump-led administration, the U.S.-China relationship is expected to remain tense, with potential trade restrictions and increased geopolitical competition.
Business and Technology: The Role of Elon Musk
Trump has also appointed Tesla CEO Elon Musk to lead the Government Efficiency Task Force, responsible for reducing waste and improving federal operations. While Musk’s role will be advisory, his influence on government policy—particularly in technology, space, and energy—is expected to be significant.
Additionally, former Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may take on a role in Trump’s administration, though not as an official government figure.
A MAGA-Loyal Cabinet
CNN analyst Stephen Collinson noted that Trump’s latest appointments reflect an administration filled with “MAGA loyalists who remained committed to him even during his most difficult times.”
Following his landslide victory over Kamala Harris, Trump now faces the challenge of proving whether his policies can indeed “Make America Great Again.” His upcoming term will test whether his economic and geopolitical strategies can deliver long-term stability—or further divide the global order.
Stay tuned for more updates on Trump’s second-term policies and their impact on the world economy.
